Soybean Demand and Black Sea Strikes Drive Divergent Grain and Livestock Moves

Overview

• NOPA reported processors crushed 214.34 million bushels of soybeans in June, a bigger-than-expected total that helped lift soybean futures this week by signaling stronger domestic processing demand.
• USDA export reports showed large old- and new-crop soybean sales, including multi-hundred‑thousand‑ton private bookings, which have added near‑term buying pressure for beans and soymeal.
• Wheat futures rallied as strikes on Black Sea ports and vessels disrupted Ukraine export infrastructure, prompting buyers to bid for alternative supplies and tightening available global shipments.
• Corn found support from a crude oil rebound that lifted biofuel and oil‑linked demand and from CFTC data showing managed‑money added to corn positions, while the USDA’s July supply outlook left the market sensitive to July–August weather.
• Trade policy and proteins diverged as the USTR’s new 25% tariff on many Brazilian goods with a beef exemption rattled cattle futures downward, while pork values and hog futures firmed on rising carcass cutouts and renewed export demand.