Southwest Faces Warmer, Likely Wetter 2026 Monsoon

Overview

• The National Weather Service Phoenix and the Climate Prediction Center project a monsoon season that is warmer than normal with elevated odds of above‑normal rainfall.
• CPC seasonal maps show roughly 40–50% odds for above‑normal temperatures and 33–55% odds for above‑normal precipitation across the Desert Southwest.
• A strong high‑pressure ridge will push near‑term temperatures up, with local forecasts calling for highs to reach 110°F or higher by the weekend.
• Monsoon storms can produce flash flooding, damaging winds and dust, widespread lightning that can start fires, downbursts, and debris flows, so officials are urging heat and storm safety preparation.
• The season officially begins June 15 but the atmosphere usually moistens in July, and forecasters warn that a >90% chance of El Niño could boost eastern Pacific hurricane activity and late‑season rainfall through September.