Particle.news
Download on the App Store
6 ARTICLES
·
3d ago

Southern San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults Reach 1,000‑Year Stress High, Study Says

A physics‑based model indicates aligned stress at Cajon Pass could let ruptures jump between faults, prompting calls to update hazard planning and strengthen key transport and energy corridors.

Image
A freight train moves past the Mormon Rocks in Cajon Canyon, not far from the San Andreas Fault near San Bernardino, California.
Image
Dangerous Fault Lines in California at Highest Pressure in 1,000 Years, Scientists Warn

Overview

  • Researchers used a four‑dimensional physics model fed by roughly 1,000 years of paleoseismic data to simulate stress on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto systems.
  • The model found stress on several segments is at or above the highest values in the past millennium, with reported values of about 2.8 MPa on the Mojave South section and about 3.6 MPa on the San Jacinto‑Bernardino section.
  • Cajon Pass is identified as an 'earthquake gate' whose stress alignment controls whether a rupture can jump between the two fault systems and create a much larger, through‑going event.
  • The authors emphasize the study does not predict timing or probability of an earthquake and describe the results as scenario information intended to inform hazard assessment, infrastructure reinforcement and emergency preparedness.
  • The peer‑reviewed paper, led by Liliane Burkhard with collaborators at the USGS, UC San Diego and other institutions, was published June 3 and researchers say planners should combine these physics‑based scenarios with existing probabilistic forecasts when updating resilience plans.