Overview
- A university release on June 10 highlighted a peer‑reviewed study led by Liliane Burkhard and published in the Journal of Geophysical Research that finds unusually high tectonic stress on Southern California faults.
- The team fed a physics‑based computer model with a 1,000‑year earthquake history reconstructed from displaced sediments, radiocarbon dating and tree‑ring records to estimate present‑day stress.
- Model results show stress on multiple segments of the San Andreas and San Jacinto systems at or above the highest levels seen in the past millennium, leaving the network in a “critically loaded” state after more than 160 years without a major southern rupture.
- The study identifies Cajon Pass as an “earthquake gate” that can either block or allow a rupture to jump between the two faults, and it warns that a joint rupture would release far more energy and threaten Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside and the Coachella Valley.
- Authors and reporting outlets stress this is not a short‑term earthquake forecast but a scenario tool meant to guide seismic hazard assessments, infrastructure resilience work and emergency preparedness across the region.