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South Texas Latino Surge Puts GOP Redistricting Goals in Doubt

Democratic primary turnout in five rural, Latino counties exceeded Kamala Harris’s 2024 totals there, powering James Talarico’s statewide win.

Overview

  • Roughly 4.3 million Texans voted in the primaries, with about 2.2 million Democratic ballots outpacing just over 2 million Republican ballots for the first time since 2020, according to unofficial totals.
  • In Zapata, Kenedy, Jim Hogg, Reeves, and Dimmit counties, Democratic primary participation surpassed the number of votes Harris received in 2024.
  • James Talarico won predominantly Latino counties by about 22 points versus roughly 3 points elsewhere, a margin that proved decisive over Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Senate primary.
  • Republican maps crafted to net five additional U.S. House seats now face skepticism, with some assessments cutting expected gains to one or two and caution that the turnout spike may reflect disapproval of President Trump rather than a lasting partisan shift.
  • In the redrawn District 35 spanning San Antonio and Austin areas, the Democratic primary drew about 7,500 more voters than the GOP contest even though Trump carried the district by 10 points in 2024.