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3w ago

South Texas Faces More Rain Risk as Forecast Models Disagree on June

European and Canadian long-range models now favor a wetter-than-normal June for parts of South-Central Texas, creating uncertainty because the U.S. model projects near-normal totals.

Texas temperatures will climb into the low 90s, but humidity will remain a big factor, pushing “feels like” temperatures into the mid-90s.
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Shown are the potential rainfall anomalies across Texas during June, according to the ECMWF weather model. The numbers represent how far above or below average rainfall is expected to be at any given point in the state.
Rain chances in Austin will increase again early next week.

Overview

  • Spring has been unusually wet with San Antonio recording about 11.97 inches of rain since April 18 and Houston measuring roughly 17.72 inches since March 1.
  • Sunday will be dry with rain chances under 10 percent as the region closes out the meteorological spring.
  • High pressure is expected to weaken this week, raising scattered thunderstorm chances with the highest probabilities on Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • Short-range guidance from the National Blend of Models shows roughly a half-inch county average over the next seven days but stresses strong local variation, so some neighborhoods could see little rain while others pick up over an inch.
  • Long-range forecasts disagree about June: the ECMWF ensemble and Canada’s model lean wetter than normal for parts of South-Central Texas while the GFS keeps totals near average, so residents should watch updated model runs for flood risk and localized heavy storms.