Overview
- The U.S. Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates released June 25 showed the national under-18 population fell by about 1.8 million between 2020 and 2025 while the South added roughly 303,969 children and its total population grew about 6 percent compared with 3.1 percent for the country.
- Most Southern child growth occurred in outlying metropolitan counties, which added about 361,757 residents under 18, while Southern micropolitan and rural counties lost children.
- The country is aging at the same time, with the median age rising to 39.4 and the 65-and-older cohort growing roughly 16 percent from 2020 to 2025, increasing demand for elder care and health workforce capacity.
- The Census estimates do not show how much of the South's child gain came from births versus migration, and analysts say turning raw population gains into lasting political and economic power will require targeted investment in schools, affordable housing, transit and health care.
- A small set of large Southern states including Texas, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee accounted for much of the region's growth, a pattern tied to pandemic-era moves and post-pandemic migration that could shift local school planning, housing markets and workforce needs.