Overview
- The FNB/BER index improved from -13 in Q3 to -9, still below Q4 2024 (-6) and the long-run average (-1).
- All three subindices rose, with the durable-goods measure up from -20 to -14, its strongest level since mid-2019.
- Middle-income households drove the rebound (from -16 to -8), low-income sentiment edged up slightly, and high-income confidence slipped to -12.
- Supportive factors cited include lower interest rates including a 25 bp cut on November 20, a stronger rand, a 47c/l petrol price drop, easing food inflation, and a 248,000 gain in Q3 jobs, alongside an S&P upgrade and FATF grey-list removal.
- Analysts expect stronger holiday sales, with Oxford Economics Africa forecasting 3.1% household consumption growth in 2025 and nudging GDP to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, though growth may ease next year as base effects fade.