Overview
- Official data show real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter on the production measure in Q4 2025, while the expenditure measure increased 0.3%.
- For 2025, growth measured from production was 1.1% versus 1.4% on the expenditure side, underscoring a measurement gap now in focus for policymakers.
- Household spending climbed 1.2% in Q4, with finance, real estate and business services up 1.4% and trade up 0.9%, leading the quarterly gains.
- Manufacturing contracted 0.6% in Q4 and was the largest annual drag, as exports fell 0.6% and imports rose 0.5% in the quarter, with a R6.2 billion inventory drawdown.
- Agriculture delivered a strong annual outturn (about 17.4%), while gross fixed capital formation rose 1.3% in Q4 but fell 2.2% for 2025, and unions and analysts questioned the government’s 2026 growth projection given oil-price risks.