Overview
- The Social Security Board of Trustees reported on Tuesday, June 9, 2026, that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund is now expected to be exhausted in the fourth quarter of 2032, one quarter earlier than last year’s estimate.
- Once reserves are gone, incoming payroll tax revenue would cover about 78% of scheduled retirement benefits, producing an automatic across-the-board cut of roughly 22% for more than 70 million beneficiaries if no law changes are made.
- The trustees attribute the faster depletion mainly to weaker revenue from the 2025 'One Big Beautiful Bill' that reduced taxation of benefits, a lower projected fertility rate, and reduced projected immigration, each of which shrinks future payroll-tax receipts.
- Policymakers and advocacy groups, including AARP and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, urged Congress to act now because earlier fixes can be phased in and cost less than delayed ones; analysts estimate an average monthly loss around $500 if no action is taken.
- Options on the table include raising or eliminating the payroll-tax wage cap, increasing payroll tax rates, raising the full retirement age, means-testing or caps on benefits, or a temporary transfer of balances between trust funds, but no bipartisan plan has been enacted.