Overview
- The Social Security trustees’ latest estimates show the OASDI retirement trust fund will be exhausted in late 2032, which by law would force an automatic reduction in scheduled benefits unless Congress acts.
- Advocacy groups forecast a larger 2027 COLA, with The Senior Citizens League projecting about 3.8% and AARP roughly 3.6%, while the Social Security Administration will set the official COLA in October using third‑quarter CPI‑W data.
- Rep. John Larson reintroduced the Social Security 2100 Act (H.R. 9519), a package that would raise the basic benefit formula, set a new minimum at 125% of the poverty line for long‑term low earners, credit unpaid caregivers, and switch to the higher of CPI‑W or CPI‑E for COLAs from 2027–2036.
- The 2100 Act pairs benefit changes with revenue measures such as extending payroll tax reach and taxing some investment income above $400,000, but its drafters and analysts note many provisions expire after 2036 and political analysts rate its chance of passing this Congress as very low.
- Millions of Americans rely on Social Security as a primary income source and would feel sharp effects if cuts occur; average retirement benefits are about $2,080 per month today and nonpartisan analysis shows a roughly $500 per month loss for the average retiree if benefits are cut by the projected amount.