Overview
- A Survation poll published Tuesday projects the SNP on 62 of 129 seats in May, three short of the 65 needed for a majority.
- Reform UK is forecast to take 19 seats, ahead of Labour on 18, the Conservatives on 13, the Scottish Greens on 10 and the Liberal Democrats on 7.
- The survey, conducted March 16–23 among 1,068 voters, puts the SNP on 35% of the constituency vote and 32% of the regional list, with Reform on 19% and 18% and Labour on 19% and 17%.
- John Swinney posts the best leader rating at net minus 10%, while Nigel Farage sits at minus 31% in Scotland and Keir Starmer at minus 47%.
- Scotland’s mixed system of constituency seats and regional list top-ups can swing outcomes with small late shifts, a dynamic seen in 2021 when the SNP fell one seat short and governed with Green support.