Overview
- The Ipsos/STV survey of 1,038 adults reports the SNP at 39% on the constituency vote and 29% on the regional list, projecting 63 of 129 seats, two short of a majority.
- On the regional list, the Greens and Reform UK each register 16% with Labour at 15%, producing a model that places Labour fourth on 14 seats in what would be its worst Holyrood result.
- Anas Sarwar, speaking Thursday at the Torness nuclear plant in East Lothian, said “this is not over” and highlighted Ipsos findings that 42% of voters have not firmly chosen a party.
- SNP campaign director Angus Robertson called the figures “very encouraging,” and Ipsos Scotland’s Emily Gray said the poll shows a stronger SNP lead and “grim” prospects for Scottish Labour.
- Analysts warn outcomes can shift because Holyrood’s mixed system uses regional list votes to balance constituency wins, a setup that can alter late seat totals and even affect individuals such as Tory leader Russell Findlay, who is relying on the West region list.