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Small‑Business Optimism Nears Long‑Run Average as Inflation and Hiring Strains Persist

Persistent inflation pressures are constraining small firms' hiring and investment decisions.

Overview

  • The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday that its Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points to 97.4 for June, moving close to its 52-year average of about 98.0.
  • Inflation is the single most important problem for the largest share of owners, with 21% naming it in June and 38% saying they raised average selling prices—the highest rate since January 2023.
  • Small‑business employment measures softened for a fourth month as the jobs index slipped to 100.2 and a seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reported openings they could not fill, with many saying few or no qualified applicants were available.
  • A fragile U.S.–Iran truce briefly eased gasoline costs and helped sentiment but collapsed after attacks on commercial tankers, and retail gasoline prices have risen again to about $3.87 per gallon from $3.80 a week earlier according to AAA data.
  • NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said lower fuel costs provide relief but high interest rates and only modest growth are keeping firms cautious about hiring and capital spending, a dynamic that could slow future job growth and investment.