Overview
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.0 points to 98.8 in September, and the Uncertainty Index jumped seven points to 100, the fourth-highest in the survey’s 51-year history.
- Twenty-four percent of owners reported raising prices and about 31% plan to do so in the next three months, while 14% named inflation as their top problem.
- Supply strains intensified, with 64% reporting disruptions and more firms noting excess inventory as sales expectations weakened.
- Reporting ties rising costs and supply issues to President Trump’s tariff actions, including a threatened 100% duty on Chinese imports, and NFIB’s Bill Dunkelberg warns higher tariffs lift inventory and consumer prices.
- The federal data freeze has delayed the September jobs report, increasing reliance on private surveys, even as most owners still rate current business health positively and maintain strong hiring plans despite persistent vacancies.