Slow‑Moving Storms Raise Flash‑Flood Risk From Gulf Coast to West Texas

Overview

• The NWS Weather Prediction Center issued a series of mesoscale precipitation discussions overnight into Tuesday warning of isolated to widely scattered flash flooding from northern Florida and eastern Georgia through central South Carolina and across parts of southeast New Mexico into western Texas.
• In the Gulf‑to‑Georgia corridor high precipitable water values near 2.0–2.25 inches and a 20–30 kt low‑level jet are supporting back‑building, training storms capable of 2–2.5 inches per hour and localized 2–4 inch rainfall streaks.
• Across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin a strengthening southeasterly low‑level jet and PWATs near 1.0–1.25 inches are fueling an expanding convective complex with hourly rates of 1–1.5 inches and pockets of 2–3 inch totals.
• The western Texas Panhandle and Pecos Valley are producing the fastest bursts with model guidance showing 0.5–0.75 inch spikes per 15 minutes and sub‑hourly totals near 1 inch, which can cause rapid runoff on hard or baked ground.
• Local flood impacts will depend strongly on soil and terrain so urban areas, recent wet spots in northern Florida and Georgia, and low flash‑flood‑guidance zones in the South Carolina Piedmont are most vulnerable and local NWS offices may issue watches or warnings as conditions change.