Slow‑Moving Storms Bring Likely Flash Flooding and Severe Wind Threats Across Southern Plains to Northeast Cities

Overview

• Forecasters with the Weather Prediction Center and local NWS offices warned Sunday that slow‑moving, backbuilding storms over north‑central and northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas are producing torrential rates of 2–3 inches per hour and localized 3–5+ inch totals that make flash flooding likely.
• Multiple WPC mesoscale precipitation discussions noted precipitable water values well above normal and a strengthening low‑level jet that shortens upwind propagation, which helps storms train over the same areas and increase runoff over already saturated soils.
• The Storm Prediction Center maintained active mesoscale discussions and severe‑thunderstorm watches across parts of the Midwest, Mid‑Atlantic and Northeast where discrete supercells and clusters were producing very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes moving toward cities including Philadelphia and New York.
• Local river forecast centers and NWS forecast offices are issuing site‑specific guidance and warnings because prior rainfall left basins and urban drainage systems vulnerable, raising the risk that heavy short bursts of rain will cause rapid urban and small‑stream flooding.
• Forecasters expect a gradual weakening trend after tonight as nocturnal cooling and marine influences push storms offshore, but they warned of continued short‑term intensification and localized severe or flash‑flood impacts before that happens.