Overview
- Sinopec chairman Hou Qijun told investors that China’s oil consumption probably reached its high point in 2025, revising the company’s earlier outlook by about two years.
- The move continues a pattern of earlier peak estimates from Chinese state players after CNPC flagged refined product demand peaking in recent years.
- Sinopec and analysts point to three clear drivers: heavy EV penetration, an economic shift away from energy‑intensive industry toward services and tech, and Beijing’s policies to curb carbon emissions.
- Traders and analysts say the update lowers long‑run oil demand expectations, is driving down long‑dated crude price forecasts, and has pushed prediction markets to cut the odds of a new all‑time oil price high to roughly 2.5%.
- Sinopec is accelerating diversification into hydrogen and other clean fuels as it waits for official Chinese energy data and monitors OPEC and geopolitical moves that could change market views.