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Singapore Poised for Cautious 2026 Budget With Small Surplus Forecast

Economists expect a small surplus reflecting a pivot from one-off aid to long-term investment.

Overview

  • Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong will deliver Budget 2026 on Feb. 12 at 3:30 p.m. local time (0730 GMT).
  • Major banks project an overall surplus of about 0.3%–1% of GDP, with a prudent stance expected early in the new parliamentary term to preserve fiscal space.
  • Analysts see smaller household cash transfers than in 2025 as policymakers channel resources toward AI, productivity and climate resilience, including more than S$1 billion committed to public AI research through 2030.
  • The backdrop shows 4.8% GDP growth in 2025, a 2026 growth outlook of 1%–3%, and MAS forecasts for core and headline inflation at 1%–2%.
  • Revenue expectations center on stronger corporate tax takings and ‘proxy wealth taxes’ such as higher property levies, top-bracket income rates and stamp duties, with corporate receipts buoyed by tech giants’ activity in Singapore.