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Simulation Projects 7% Fewer Strokes if Japan Meets Milk Intake Guideline

A peer-reviewed model projects national gains based on assumed effects rather than observed behavior.

Overview

  • The Nutrients study modeled raising average milk intake to 180 g per day for adults aged 30–79 using an age- and sex-stratified Markov model over 10 years.
  • An immediate shift to the target was projected to reduce stroke incidence and stroke-related mortality by about 7.0%, compared with 3.2% for a gradual increase.
  • Researchers estimated roughly 123,618 strokes and 18,721 deaths could be prevented nationwide over a decade.
  • Stroke-related national healthcare expenditure was projected to drop about 5.1% in the immediate scenario, with cumulative savings near USD 2.3 billion (about USD 1.0 billion if gradual).
  • Results rely on an assumed relative risk of 0.82 per 200 g of milk from prior Asian data, and the model excluded implementation costs and real-world behavior change.