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Silver Heads for Sixth Straight Deficit as Stockpiles Shrink and Squeeze Risk Lingers

Analysts say a thin pool of freely available metal leaves trading conditions fragile.

Overview

  • Industry researchers for the Silver Institute said Wednesday the market is set for a sixth year of deficit, with about 762 million ounces drawn from inventories since 2021.
  • London lease rates have mostly returned to normal by end-March, yet Metals Focus warns a new squeeze could form if price swings, Indian buying, and fresh exchange-traded product inflows return.
  • Total demand fell 2% in 2025 to roughly 1.1 billion ounces as solar makers cut silver use and jewellery sales weakened, while coin and bar buying rose 14% and is expected to climb 18% in 2026.
  • Mine output rose 3% last year to 846.6 million ounces, but total supply is forecast to slip 2% in 2026 as producer hedging fades and operational strains limit gains.
  • Prices hit a record $121.6 per ounce in January after a 2025 retail rush and now trade about 35% lower, reflecting easier liquidity but a market still prone to sharp moves.