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Sign‑Up Bonuses Drive Price Moves in Week 0 College‑Football Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket

Referral codes targeted to specific states have moved implied win odds, with identity checks, state exclusions, and bonus playthrough rules limiting how long that promotional liquidity may last.

Overview

  • Reporting on Aug. 28–29 shows Kalshi and Polymarket activated regional promo codes and sign‑up offers that coincided with visible trades in Week 0 markets.
  • Kalshi is widely promoting trade $25/get $25 regional codes such as MLIVE, PENNLIVE and OREGONLIVE1 while Polymarket is offering roughly $20 for a $10 first deposit, and those bonuses have been used to place market orders.
  • Live prices shifted on key games as bonus‑funded trades hit order books, with TCU priced about 74–76% to beat North Carolina and USC about 98–99% to beat San Jose State in published markets.
  • Kalshi is a CFTC‑regulated event‑contract exchange that uses an order‑book where contract prices imply probabilities, and availability is state‑restricted with Michigan and other states blocked and KYC, playthrough and expiration rules applying to bonuses.
  • Analysts warn that strict identity verification, state ineligibility and bonus terms will determine whether the added liquidity becomes lasting market depth or simply produces short‑term price moves, and consumers should review terms before trading.