Overview
- Researchers warned Tuesday that wildfires have already scorched more than 150 million hectares this year, with World Weather Attribution linking the record start to climate change and a likely strong El Niño.
- Observations show the Pacific has crossed the 0.5°C El Niño threshold and a large subsurface warm pool is pushing east, a setup that often precedes rapid surface warming.
- Model ensembles now include scenarios topping 3°C of central‑Pacific warming by late year, though experts note springtime forecasts carry higher uncertainty before ocean‑atmosphere coupling locks in.
- Forecasters expect Atlantic hurricane formation to be suppressed while Eastern Pacific activity intensifies, yet they caution the northern Gulf and Southeast coast could still see impactful near‑shore systems.
- Expected shifts in rainfall and heat raise drought and fire risks for Australia, Indonesia, parts of Asia and the Amazon, with wetter conditions more likely in parts of the Americas including the southern United States.