Overview
- Galaxy Digital cut its 2026 passage estimate to 50% and said Senate scheduling, not the bill’s core policy, is now the main obstacle to a floor vote.
- Prediction market prices show rising skepticism with Polymarket traders assigning roughly a 41% chance that the CLARITY Act will become law this year.
- Lawmakers have not released a unified Senate text and no floor vote date has been set, though staff-level reconciliation continues and sponsors expect a draft for public review in early July.
- Major policy disputes that must be resolved before a vote include enforceable ethics provisions, Section 604’s developer safe harbors, and rules for stablecoin yields, and the DOJ has said the bill would not weaken prosecutors’ ability to investigate crypto crimes.
- If senators miss the narrowing pre-recess window, passage could slip into next year, a delay industry groups warn may push projects and capital overseas and prolong regulatory uncertainty for users and firms.