Shopify’s Stock Lags as AI Commerce Accelerates

Recent product upgrades and rising AI-driven sales have strengthened Shopify’s growth case, which raises the question of who will capture the payments on those AI-originated orders.

Overview

Shopify shares have fallen about 30% year to date and trade near $108 despite the company reporting more than 30% revenue growth for four straight quarters and Q1 GMV and EBIT beating estimates.
The company reported an 8x year-over-year jump in AI-driven traffic and said channels such as ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot and Google Gemini convert at nearly twice the rate of other sources, boosting merchant sales data.
Shopify’s Sidekick AI saw weekly active merchant use rise fourfold year over year, and the Spring 2026 Editions announced in mid‑June upgraded Catalog and the Universal Commerce Protocol to support agentic, cross-surface buying.
Investor signals are mixed but notable: Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform with a $150 target after the Spring Editions, Piper Sandler remains bullish, Cantor Fitzgerald and UBS cut or held Neutral targets, and Thrive Capital invested $100 million tied to AI commerce.
A key risk is that major AI platforms could try to capture transaction value from the higher-converting AI flows, which matters because merchant-services payments make up roughly three-quarters of Shopify’s revenue and would affect margins and long-term economics.