Overview
- Chief executive Wael Sawan has flagged a potential 350,000 boe/d production gap by 2035 versus targets, with recent commentary and analyst models stretching that shortfall to as much as 800,000 boe/d without new assets.
- Near-term, Shell previously projected a 100,000–200,000 boe/d gap by 2030 and says recent project work in the U.S. Gulf, Brazil, Nigeria, Angola, South Africa and Namibia has largely covered it.
- Independent estimates point to deeper declines: Wood Mackenzie sees production falling by about 800,000 boe/d over the next decade, while UBS projects roughly 2.5 million boe/d by around 2035, implying a ~400,000 boe/d hole absent further action.
- Analysts and the company say acquisitions or a major exploration success are likely required to sustain output, reflecting a portfolio thinned by past exits from U.S. shale and Guyana that Sawan has publicly regretted.
- Shell is prioritizing LNG growth and modest hydrocarbon expansion under its net‑zero 2050 goals, as sector-wide underinvestment and a drop in major discoveries persist, with OPEC citing nearly $18 trillion in upstream spending needed by 2050.