Overview
- Shell published its LNG Outlook on June 30 and projects global LNG demand will climb to nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050, about a 65% rise from 2025 levels.
- The report says a Middle East conflict that disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz temporarily cut roughly one-fifth of monthly LNG flows and pushed Asian spot prices above $20 per MMBtu.
- Shell credits higher U.S. liquefaction output, stronger performance at existing plants, and a large share of long-term contracts with cushioning the market and keeping 2026 trade roughly in line with 2025 if Hormuz shipping normalizes.
- The company expects about 180 million tonnes per year of new liquefaction capacity by 2030 but warns supply could begin to fall short around 2037 and widen to a 100–300 Mtpa deficit by 2050 unless more projects are sanctioned.
- Shell highlights that South and Southeast Asia will drive much of the growth, that LNG bunkering could rise sevenfold by 2035, and that failing to build regasification and pipeline links will raise prices, constrain access, and increase geopolitical risk for importers.