Overview
- Shell’s LNG Outlook published June 30 projects global demand will climb about 65% to nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050 and expects roughly 180 million tonnes per year of new liquefaction to come online by 2030.
- A recent Middle East conflict and attacks that disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz temporarily removed about one-fifth of monthly global LNG supply and pushed Asian spot prices above $20 per MMBtu.
- U.S. export growth, improved plant performance and long-term contracts helped limit the immediate shock by diverting cargoes eastward, with preliminary ship-tracking showing less than half of U.S. LNG exports went to Europe in June.
- Shell’s modelling indicates supply could begin to fall short of demand around 2037 and widen thereafter, producing a cumulative shortfall by 2050 of roughly 100 to 300 million tonnes per year unless large additional projects are sanctioned and built.
- A growing import footprint in South and Southeast Asia, rising demand from LNG bunkering and data centers, and Europe’s recent drop to a ten-month low in regasified inflows make faster permitting, financing and construction of terminals and pipelines a policy priority.