Severe‑Storm Watch Likely for Central South Dakota and Northern Nebraska

Overview

• The NWS Storm Prediction Center says a severe‑thunderstorm watch is about 80 percent likely this afternoon and evening for central South Dakota into northern Nebraska to cover growing supercells.
• Environment analyses show MLCAPE near 1,000–2,000 J/kg with 20–30 kt of deep‑layer shear, conditions that favor supercell structure and initial threats of large hail and damaging winds.
• An earlier nocturnal convective cluster across central South Dakota and north‑central Nebraska produced strong gusts but has weakened and is expected to diminish as storms move into a moister, less unstable air mass.
• Across southern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida very high instability (MLCAPE 2,500–3,000 J/kg) will favor short‑lived, outflow‑dominant storms with isolated downbursts of 40–60 mph and a watch is considered unlikely because shear is weak.
• The Weather Prediction Center warns slow‑moving storms in west‑central Florida and parts of northern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota could produce intense rainfall rates (over 3"/hr in Florida and 2–3"/hr in the Upper Midwest) leading to localized flash flooding, urban flooding and ponding on roadways.