Overview
- The bill is stuck on the Senate legislative calendar with no motions filed to begin debate and no scheduled floor vote, leaving its pre‑August window in jeopardy.
- Senate leaders face a cramped July schedule that is strained further by President Trump’s linkage of other measures to the SAVE Act, which is consuming leadership time and crowding out specialized legislation.
- Key policy disputes remain unresolved over enforceable ethics and conflict‑of‑interest language, anti‑money‑laundering scope, developer protections tied to the BRCA, and stablecoin rules, any of which could change the vote math.
- Market signals show waning near‑term confidence: on June 29, analysts at Galaxy Digital cut 2026 passage odds to about 50% and Polymarket prices the chance at roughly 44%, while industry lobbying has intensified, including Ripple’s public ad campaign.
- If Senate leaders do not secure July floor time and negotiators fail to merge competing committee texts, the bill would likely be delayed into September or 2027, forcing a fresh cloture fight, House alignment, and the president’s signature before it can become law.