Overview
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled he will push to begin floor consideration but lacks the Democratic crossover votes needed to reach the roughly 60‑vote cloture threshold.
- Negotiators circulated a merged draft that adds a temporary ban on federal officials issuing or sponsoring digital assets that would expire in 2029, but several Senate Democrats say the ethics language remains insufficient.
- The National Fraternal Order of Police reversed its opposition and endorsed the revised bill, removing one law‑enforcement hurdle but leaving consumer‑protection and AML concerns unresolved.
- Prediction markets and analysts put the bill’s chance of becoming law in 2026 at about 30–33 percent, reflecting market concern that a missed pre‑recess window will push action to September or later.
- If Congress delays, the core aim of the CLARITY Act—to draw statutory lines between SEC and CFTC authority and set rules for exchanges, custody and certain developers—will remain unresolved and could prompt regulators to act on their own.