Overview
- Texas Democrats won a deep-red state senate seat by 14 points in a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024, a result GOP senators called a wake-up call.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune urged a sharper record and message, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz stressed turnout after the special-election surprise.
- Polling cited by the coverage shows Trump's approval now in the high 30s to low 40s, down from roughly even at the start of his second term.
- Betting markets currently put Republicans at about 63% to keep the Senate, while giving Democrats roughly a 78% chance to win the House.
- A Harvard-Harris survey shows Democrats up four points on the generic ballot, with GOP vulnerabilities flagged in Maine, North Carolina and Ohio and calls on the right for tighter economic and immigration messaging.