Overview
- A fast-tracked Senate inquiry that was due to report on Tuesday was extended twice and on Friday was pushed back again to next Tuesday, deepening doubts about the government's plan to pass the bill before the winter break.
- Government modelling presented to the inquiry projects about 240,000 people could be removed from the NDIS by 2031 under the changes while many would be moved to new state-run 'foundational supports' that are not yet funded or proven.
- Treasury analysis warned a one-year delay could erase roughly $17 billion of the expected forward-estimate savings, making the timetable central to the government's broader budget strategy.
- Disability groups, inquiry witnesses and state health ministers told the probe the proposed changes risk harming vulnerable participants, with states saying they have not agreed to deliver like-for-like replacement services.
- Passage of the reforms now hinges on crossbench negotiations, notably with the Greens who oppose the bill in its current form, and on whether the Coalition will back amendments or support the legislation.