Overview
- Republican strategists in key states now warn their majority is at risk as the Iran war and high gas prices create voter headwinds.
- Cook Political Report moved several contests toward Democrats, shifting Georgia and North Carolina to lean Democratic and changing Ohio to toss up.
- Democrats posted a first‑quarter fundraising edge in major races, with James Talarico at $27 million in Texas, Sen. Jon Ossoff at $14 million in Georgia and Roy Cooper at $13.8 million in North Carolina.
- Bettors on Kalshi now slightly favor a Democratic flip after the GOP had been a heavy favorite just months ago.
- Analysts still call the path uphill because Democrats must defend every seat and flip about four GOP seats as results hinge on the war’s course, fuel costs, turnout and whether Republicans unify after primaries.