Overview
- Pressure is mounting on the House to mirror the Senate’s move after Thursday’s unanimous vote barred senators and staff from using prediction apps like Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Kalshi introduced stricter protections that bar minors from trading, require Face ID or selfie checks with two‑factor authentication, suggest deposit limits based on behavior, and detect unauthorized account access.
- The jurisdiction battle is intensifying as the CFTC sues states and cites fresh wins limiting state action, while Massachusetts justices signaled the state can treat some Kalshi sports contracts as gambling.
- Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand and Dave McCormick proposed the Prediction Market Act of 2026 to set tougher consumer rules, require age checks, and outlaw insider trading on these platforms.
- Institutional interest is growing, with Kalshi executing its first bespoke block trade tied to California’s carbon auction, even as analyses show profits concentrate with a tiny slice of pros, leaving most casual users losing.