Overview
- An international team led by William Ripple reports that several Earth system components are nearer to critical thresholds that could drive long‑lasting, hard‑to‑reverse warming.
- Global temperatures were at or above 1.5°C for twelve consecutive months in 2024, a short‑term overshoot that signals rapid change rather than a formal breach of the Paris limit.
- Model analyses cited in the paper indicate that even a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C could increase tipping risks by up to 72% compared with staying within that threshold.
- Systems flagged as near or potentially tipping include the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, boreal permafrost, mountain glaciers, and parts of the Amazon rainforest.
- Independent scientists underscore uncertainties in simulating elements such as ice sheets and the AMOC, while the authors urge faster emissions cuts, protection of carbon sinks, stronger governance, and coordinated monitoring, noting current pledges imply roughly 2.8°C by 2100.