Overview
- Researchers led by Professor Sandra Chapman publicly presented a new forecasting technique at the Royal Astronomical Society meeting and issued an early prediction that Solar Cycle 26 will be moderate, with a peak of about 100–120 sunspots.
- The method identifies a sharp end to the most severe space weather when active regions drop to roughly 15 degrees solar latitude, a point the team calls the 'switch‑off' that marks the cycle transition.
- The team finds a direct link between the number of sunspots present at that switch‑off moment and the peak strength of the following cycle, enabling forecasts up to six or seven years before maximum activity.
- The researchers cite retrospective agreement with extreme geomagnetic storms and widespread auroras in May 2024 as evidence the approach can outperform some traditional models.
- The forecast will be refined into a precise, observation‑based prediction once Solar Cycle 25 reaches the switch‑off latitude in about two years, and earlier warnings could help satellite operators and grid managers prepare.