Overview
- Researchers from Imperial College, the Met Office and LSHTM published modelled estimates on Monday that attribute about 2,700 excess deaths to two early-season heatwaves in May and June 2026.
- The study breaks the toll into roughly 550 deaths during 21–29 May and about 2,200 deaths during 18–28 June and finds daytime maxima were roughly 3°C–4°C hotter than they would have been without human-driven warming.
- Authors estimate about 42% of the combined deaths were driven by human-caused climate change, with a higher fraction in May (about 59%) than in June (about 38%).
- The findings have intensified calls from public-health experts and the Climate Change Committee for rapid adaptation measures such as temperature limits at work, cooling for hospitals and schools, and housing upgrades to protect vulnerable people.
- The UK Health Security Agency will publish an interim mortality analysis based on death registrations in the coming weeks and commentators have already raised questions by comparing the modelled totals with provisional weekly registration signals.