Overview
- A late‑July joint analysis by Groundwork Collaborative and The Century Foundation using NielsenIQ data found a typical school‑supply basket rose about 8% year‑over‑year and a typical packed lunch rose roughly 11%.
- Several individual items jumped far more, with lunch boxes up about 27%, one‑subject notebooks about 23%, index cards about 22%, and sandwich bread about 22%.
- The groups and multiple manufacturers say steeper U.S. import tariffs and higher energy and shipping costs linked to the Iran conflict have been passed to consumers, and some companies publicly cited those cost pressures in 2026 earnings calls.
- Surveys from Credit Karma, U.S. News and others show many parents are coping by taking on credit card or buy‑now‑pay‑later debt, delaying purchases, buying secondhand, or asking children to help cover costs.
- Cuts to SNAP eligibility since mid‑2025 have reduced food assistance for roughly 1.5 million children, which experts say makes higher lunch prices harder for families to absorb and raises the risk that new July trade levies and ongoing geopolitical risk will push costs higher this fall.