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2d ago

Scheffler and McIlroy Co‑Favorites as 10,000‑Run Model Upends Open Betting

A SportsLine simulation released July 11 produces surprising projections that could alter pre‑tournament wagers ahead of the Open.

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Overview

  • The 156‑player field for the 2026 Open Championship is set and the tournament begins Thursday, July 16, at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England.
  • Betting markets via FanDuel list Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as co‑favorites at +750, with Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick next on the board.
  • CBS Sports summarized a SportsLine model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, that simulated the Open 10,000 times and is being promoted as having correctly forecast 17 major outcomes.
  • The model’s publicly reported surprises include a call to fade home favorite Tommy Fleetwood and a projection that Ludvig Åberg could finish inside the top three.
  • SportsLine also flags several longshot targets, one near 35‑1, but the full projected leaderboard and specific picks are available only to subscribers behind a paywall.