Overview
- Real GDP growth is now projected at 3.75–4.75% for FY26, with further acceleration expected in FY27.
- Inflation is expected to stay within the 5–7% target range for most of FY26 and FY27, though some near-term volatility may persist.
- The current account deficit is forecast at 0–1% of GDP in FY26, with FX reserves seen rising to $18 billion by June 2026 from about $16.16 billion currently.
- Risks flagged include uncertainty from global tariff developments, commodity price volatility, below-target revenue collection, and potential adverse climate events, while flood-related disruption risk has receded.
- The report urges faster structural reforms to boost productivity and address state-owned enterprise losses, and it introduces analytical additions such as transmission updates, heat maps, and private-sector surveys to enhance policy communication.