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SBP Projects Stronger Growth as Remittances Lift Reserves to $18.4 Billion

Rising worker transfers, larger FX reserves, bank-led remittance incentives signal easing external pressure for Pakistan

Overview

  • SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad said on Friday that FY26 GDP growth is now projected at 3.75–4.75 percent, above the government's provisional 3.7 percent estimate.
  • Worker remittances are set to exceed $41.5 billion in FY26 and the central bank forecasts they will reach about $44 billion in FY27, with Roshan Digital Account inflows rising to over $300 million monthly.
  • The State Bank reported its FX reserves held at $18.4 billion by end-FY26 despite large external repayments, a shift the bank credits to stronger remittance inflows and improved external management.
  • The central bank has wound down government-funded remittance subsidies and said commercial banks and exchange companies will continue offering incentives at their own cost so formal inflows are not disrupted.
  • Remaining challenges include a wider FY26 trade deficit of about $39.47 billion and average inflation around 7.05 percent, but the SBP expects exports to recover in FY27 and says improved reserves and debt composition have bolstered investor confidence.