Overview
- In late December, Saudi jets struck weapons bound for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council, and the STC later agreed to dissolve as Emirati units withdrew.
- Saudi-backed forces rolled back STC gains across the south and east after an STC push into oil-rich Hadramout that Riyadh cast as a direct security threat.
- Riyadh is tightening security ties with Pakistan and Turkey, including a September 2025 defence pact and drone co-production with Ankara, while Abu Dhabi is deepening cooperation with India and Israel.
- Economic competition is escalating through Saudi Arabia’s Project HQ mandate and the launch of Riyadh Air, challenging Dubai’s hub status and sharpening differences over oil output policy.
- The split is spilling into Sudan, Somalia and a fierce media contest, and in Washington both sides are lobbying as President Trump has so far stayed publicly neutral.