Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization and major forecast centres place high odds on El Niño developing by mid-2026 and staying through at least November, and they are urging governments and communities to prepare.
- Satellite data from Sentinel-6 and NASA show a strong eastward Kelvin wave and elevated sea levels off Peru of about 15 centimetres by mid-May, a well-known ocean precursor that increases the likelihood El Niño will emerge soon.
- Many climate models now project a moderate-to-strong event and a subset show the potential for a very strong or 'super' El Niño, but model spread and the spring predictability barrier leave the eventual peak strength uncertain.
- Forecasters expect shifts in rainfall and heat patterns that could raise flooding risk in parts of South America, the southern United States and East Africa while increasing drought and heat risk in Australia, Indonesia and parts of South Asia, with direct impacts on crops, water supplies and health.
- Past strong El Niños caused large ecological and economic damage and scientists warn that a warmer baseline climate will likely amplify floods, droughts and heat extremes this time, with knock-on effects for food prices, energy systems and disaster planning.