Santa Catarina Declares 180-Day Climate Alert as El Niño Risk Rises

Overview

• Santa Catarina, which issued the 180-day alert Monday, aims to speed disaster readiness with a state crisis committee, faster recognition of municipal emergencies, and access to the state disaster fund.
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center raised an El Niño alert with an 82% chance of formation between May and July and a 96% chance of persistence through December to February 2027, with about a 37% chance of a very strong peak from November to January.
• Ocean readings already show sustained warming in the key Niño 3.4 zone near +0.4°C and stronger subsurface heat, yet scientists stress the spring “predictability barrier,” so intensity and local impacts remain uncertain.
• Brazilian agencies expect wetter conditions in the South with higher flood and landslide risk, drier and hotter conditions in the North and Northeast with more fires and lower river levels, and more frequent heat waves in central states.
• Analysts warn of knock-on effects for power and crops, including pressure on hydropower in dry regions and mixed impacts on global grain prices if U.S. yields rise while parts of South America face flood-related losses.