Overview
- The stock jumped into roughly $1,790 territory after SanDisk was added to the S&P 100 on Sept. 21 and Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a Buy and $2,400 target on Sept. 22, following a year‑to‑date rally of about 650–700%.
- Management disclosed ten ‘New Business Model’ agreements with eight customers that commit volumes and set price floors and ceilings, a structure Rosenblatt and others say could cover roughly 60–65% of near‑term production.
- SanDisk’s fiscal 2026 results showed rapid scale: total revenue near $20.2 billion and about $5.2 billion from data centers, and management has proposed a FY28–FY30 framework targeting mid‑to‑high‑teens revenue growth, roughly 80% adjusted gross margins and 50% adjusted free‑cash‑flow margins.
- Analysts warn the core risk remains NAND cyclicality because competitors including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and partner Kioxia can add capacity that would pressure prices, and SanDisk has not disclosed the exact floor prices in its contracts.
- Near‑term market signals to watch include SanDisk’s fiscal Q1 report expected in early November, contract price‑floor clarity, and how index buying plus the $14 billion buyback affect share trading if industry pricing weakens.