Overview
- CREA estimates Russia’s oil and gas receipts are down about 27% versus pre-war levels, with Urals prices dropping at times near $35 a barrel after US actions against Rosneft and Lukoil and a G7/EU price cap cut to $44.10.
- Export volumes remain elevated despite weaker per‑barrel income, as Russia expands a shadow tanker fleet from roughly 106 vessels in early 2025 to 153 at the start of 2026 to skirt enforcement.
- Analyses warn the 2026 budget deficit could nearly triple if low energy earnings persist, potentially forcing the use of up to three quarters of the accessible National Wealth Fund.
- The central bank keeps rates above 20% as corporate strain intensifies, with 28.8% of firms reporting losses and Rostec’s chief cautioning that financing costs render export contracts unprofitable.
- The EU has passed 19 sanctions packages but enforcement gaps and routing via third countries such as Kyrgyzstan and expanded ties with China undercut impact, and a 20th package is stalled by vetoes from Hungary and Slovakia.