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3w ago

Saharan Dust Haze Gives Way to Gulf-Driven Storms Across Texas

A plume of Saharan dust is reducing air quality this week and a surge of Gulf moisture will likely trigger heavy showers and repeated thunderstorms starting Friday.

Swimmers queue at the diving board before jumping into the cool waters of Barton Springs Pool as temperatures reached the mid-90s in Austin on Monday. Austin could see its first 100-degree day later this week.
Saharan dust is seen in this weather satellite photo transiting across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon. This dust will reach Southeast Texas by Thursday, bringing hazy skies and decreased storm chances.
Rainfall totals will be between a quarter-inch and a half-inch across Central Texas by next Monday. 
Drought levels across Texas have improved significantly since January, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. This graphic compares drought coverage this week, left, to the beginning of the calendar year, right.

Overview

  • The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality says Saharan dust is producing hazy skies and keeping fine-particle air quality in the “moderate” range through Friday.
  • A strengthening midweek ridge boosted temperatures and created one last chance for triple-digit highs in Central Texas, with forecasters pointing to Thursday as the final shot before the pattern flips.
  • Forecast guidance from the National Weather Service shows an incoming upper-level disturbance and PWATs near 2.0–2.25 inches starting Friday, which favors more widespread shower and thunderstorm development.
  • Most models and local forecasts call for widespread 1–3 inch rainfall totals this weekend in Southeast Texas with isolated 4–6 inch pockets possible where storms repeatedly train, raising localized flash-flood risk.
  • The U.S. Drought Monitor reports statewide drought has improved to about 32% coverage, but residents face a trade-off of reduced long-term drought versus short-term hazards such as respiratory irritation from dust, localized flooding, and higher wildfire risk where soils dry out.