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Safe-Haven Playbook Upended as Gold Plunges and Bonds Struggle

An oil shock tied to the Iran conflict drove up rate expectations, steering investors toward dollar cash.

Overview

  • Gold has dropped 17% in March in its worst month since 1983, while government bonds also fell as the Iran conflict pushed energy costs higher.
  • Higher oil prices lifted inflation pressures and likely interest-rate increases, which raised yields and made non-yielding assets like gold less appealing.
  • Market plumbing worsened the slide as leveraged bets were unwound, exchange-traded funds saw redemptions, and silver crashed a record 36% in one session.
  • Investors favored dollar liquidity and cash, with U.S. money-market funds rising about $60 billion to a record $7.86 trillion, even as some foreign central banks sold Treasuries.
  • History suggests bonds often lose ground during wartime inflation shocks, and a typical 60-40 stock-bond mix is down roughly 3.5% this year, underscoring the strain on standard portfolios.