Overview
- On Thursday, June 11, Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted North Carolina from toss-up to leans Democratic and moved Alaska and Ohio from leans Republican to toss-up, tightening the list of competitive seats.
- North Carolina’s change reflects former Gov. Roy Cooper’s polling lead over Republican Mike Whatley and the state’s recent federal voting history that has been tough for Democrats.
- Ohio and Alaska became true toss-ups with Sherrod Brown facing appointed Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio and Mary Peltola expected to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, with selective polls showing Brown and Peltola competitive.
- The forecaster tied the moves mainly to broad political conditions, citing President Trump’s weak approval ratings and the national political environment rather than isolated campaign events.
- Practical factors still matter: there are unsettled primaries and runoffs (Alaska’s top-four primary is Aug. 18), other handicappers have made similar shifts, and Democrats must win every toss-up — Ohio, Alaska, Maine and Michigan — to flip the 53-47 Senate majority while Republicans can retain control by holding any one toss-up.